Energy Crisis from War on Iran Deeper Than Widely Assumed

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The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has been characterised by a series of miscalculations by most of the involved and peripheral parties, but the real danger is the delusion over the scale of the resulting energy crisis.

It is delusional of any nation to think that it, or any other country, can emerge as a "winner" from the conflict, now into its sixth week.

The reality is that even with a ceasefire and the resumption of vessel flows through the Strait of Hormuz in the next few weeks, an energy crisis for the world economy is locked in.

What is required to avoid making a bad situation worse is clear thinking on the part of governments, corporations and consumers.

The first delusion is thinking that the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will solve the current problems with the supply of crude oil, refined products and liquefied natural gas.

The second delusion is thinking that U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration are acting rationally, taking considered decisions and are fully attuned to the economic damage being inflicted on erstwhile allies in the Gulf, Europe and Asia.

The third delusion is thinking that this is a crisis of crude oil prices, where it is actually an emergency over the supply of refined products, especially to fuel-importing nations.

The fourth delusion is thinking that short-term policies of self-interest will save your country from the worst of the fallout.

China's ending of refined fuel exports may well ensure domestic supplies, but if its neighbours in Asia are forced to shut down much of their economies because of shortages, how long before this blows back on China's export industries

There are some encouraging signs that governments are starting to recognise the scale of the crisis, with Australia securing fuel imports from suppliers such as Japan and Singapore in exchange for commitments to keep supplying coal and LNG.

But the question remains as to how prepared the world is to deal with the sustained loss of around 12 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined products, which is more than 10% of daily demand.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, prices and demand slumped as global lockdowns prevented people from travelling and consuming. But the current shock is an even more worrying supply issue that has seen prices surge, with physical products like jet fuel in Singapore more than doubling.

There are two factors that simply cannot be ignored.

1. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to the majority of vessels.

2. Any negotiations to end the conflict and re-open the strait have failed so far, and the rhetoric from the main players suggests little imminent hope of a breakthrough.

Trump said that Iran can be "taken out" if it doesn't re-open the strait, and used expletives in a social media post.

His threats to rain "hell" on Iran came after he appeared at the weekend alongside a person in an Easter Bunny costume at the White House, where he veered between talking about egg supply to threatening to destroy Iran's bridges and power plants.

If there is an image that encapsulates the lunacy of the current situation, it's the president of the United States standing next to a mythical children's character related to a religious celebration of eternal salvation while threatening to destroy another country.

It's little surprise that Iran has so far rejected ceasefire overtures, given the violent threats deployed by Trump and the visible build-up of U.S. military forces in the region, not to mention his track record of abandoning agreements.

Risks Abound

While there may still be an off-ramp from the threatened escalation, the risk remains that more facilities in the Gulf will be attacked and damaged.

Iran has so far managed to hit Qatar's LNG and gas-to-liquids plants, as well as refineries and infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

The Strait of Hormuz is too risky for most ship owners to consider passage, and the few vessels that are going through are believed to be doing so with Iran approval, and after payment of a toll to Tehran.

Trump has effectively three options left.

1. Walk away from the mess he has created while trying to spin the conflict as a win.

2. Escalate dramatically and run the risk of a long conflict with massive damage to the Gulf's energy infrastructure and the resulting severe global energy crisis and recession.

3. Accept a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement that will likely be more favourable to Iran than what existed prior to the start of the conflict on February 28.

The third is probably the one that will be least harmful to the world economy, but it seems the least likely given the statements and actions of the parties involved.

The impact of having to lower global crude and refined products demand by around 10% of current levels won't be evenly spread around the globe and it won't all come at once.

Poorer countries in Asia and Africa will take the first hits as they struggle to both source and pay for refined products.

Rather than turn inwards, governments across the globe should be working together to work through the crisis.

But they have to recognise the gravity of the situation.

The U.S. administration and its president appear disconnected from reality and are now acting in ways that harm the interests of traditional allies.

The main impacts of the crisis are likely to be felt in May as refiners, especially in Asia, struggle to source crude.

The second-round effects such as higher inflation, lower global trade, job losses and social unrest are likely to emerge in the second half of the year.

The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

(Reuters - Editing by Jamie Freed)