US Oil Output Projection Raised for 2025, says EIA
February 11, 2025
U.S. oil production is expected to reach new heights in 2025, surpassing earlier projections, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- The EIA now forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 13.55 million bpd.
Despite this upward revision in production, the agency has kept its forecast for U.S. petroleum and liquid fuel consumption steady at 20.5 million bpd for 2025. President Donald Trump has reaffirmed his commitment to maximizing U.S. oil output, even as industry leaders emphasize the importance of capital discipline amid volatile market conditions.
Brent crude prices are projected to average $74 per barrel in 2025, before declining to around $66 in 2026. This trend reflects anticipated increases in production alongside modest global demand growth. OPEC+ production cuts are expected to keep global oil inventories tight, supporting current price levels through the first quarter of 2025.
Global liquid fuels production is forecasted to rise by 1.7 million bpd in 2025, with OPEC+ contributing around 100,000 bpd. The group plans to boost output by an additional 600,000 bpd in 2026 as they gradually ease voluntary production cuts. However, production will remain below target levels to prevent excessive inventory build-up.
Non-OPEC+ production growth will be led by the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana through 2026, further diversifying global supply sources. Global liquid fuels consumption is expected to grow by 1.4 million bpd in 2025 and by 1 million bpd in 2026, driven primarily by increased demand in India and China. Nevertheless, this growth remains slower than pre-pandemic trends.
While potential tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports under the Trump administration are not expected to significantly impact global oil supply, the EIA notes that such trade measures, along with new U.S. sanctions on Russia, add uncertainty to future price forecasts. U.S. refinery utilization is projected to remain high, but net fuel exports are likely to decline as domestic demand increases, partly due to the planned closure of two U.S. refineries. This shift underscores the evolving dynamics of both domestic energy consumption and international trade in petroleum products.
(Reuters + Staff)
