OEUK Warns of Major Job Losses Without Urgent Windfall Tax Reform
November 26, 2025
Thousands of U.K. jobs and billions in future tax revenue are at risk unless the government reforms the Energy Profits Levy (EPL), industry group Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) said ahead of the Autumn Statement.
OEUK said statistical modelling shows that revising the 78% levy in 2026 instead of waiting for its scheduled expiry in 2030 would increase total tax receipts from £32.9 billion ($43.2 billion) to $63.9 billion (£48.6 billion) over the next decade, driven by higher employment, stronger supply-chain activity and greater investment in domestic oil and gas production.
The group, which represents more than 400 companies across oil, gas, offshore wind, carbon capture and hydrogen, said that earlier reform could unlock $65.7 billion (£50 billion) of U.K. projects, support tens of thousands of jobs and improve long-term energy security. It said the revised tax scheme would pay for itself within five years.
Industry data compiled by OEUK shows 111 projects containing 3.25 billion barrels of reserves are economically viable with the right fiscal conditions, enough for the UK to meet at least half of its oil and gas needs to 2050 from domestic supplies. The group estimates these projects could generate $98.6 billion (£75 billion) in economic value by 2035.
OEUK warned that delaying reform to 2030 would accelerate the natural decline of the North Sea basin, with output forecast to fall by 40% by the end of the decade. Such a decline, it said, could result in the loss of about 1,000 jobs a month, increased reliance on imports and reduced tax revenues from UK production.
The group said the Office for Budget Responsibility’s projections for future oil and gas receipts are overstated because of weaker commodity prices, with production revenue expected to fall from $15.1 billion (£11.5 billion) to $8.8 billion (£6.7 billion) between 2026/27 and 2029/30.
Reforming the EPL would also help secure the offshore energy supply chain and support the longevity of key industrial hubs including Aberdeen, Teesside, Grangemouth and East Anglia.
“1000 jobs lost a month is not acceptable. Reforming the Energy Profits Levy is the single most critical step to unlock investment, protect jobs, and secure our energy future. The Chancellor must act.
“We recognize that these are difficult times; but the path forward must be to support growth, unlock £50 billion of investment, protect 160,000 jobs, and anchor the supply chain companies needed for future offshore wind, carbon capture and storage and hydrogen projects. We need a budget that backs UK industry and our workforce,” said David Whitehouse, Chief Executive of OEUK.
The U.K.’s offshore energy sector supports about 200,000 jobs, including 90,000 in Scotland, and contributes $32.9 billion (£25 billion) a year to the economy. The UK currently imports around 40% of its energy and is on track to produce less than 4 billion barrels of the 10–15 billion barrels it is projected to need by 2050.
OEUK said uncertainty around the EPL also threatens access to an estimated $263 billion (£200 billion) in private capital for U.K. energy projects as more than 240 producing fields are expected to fall to around 80 by 2030 without fresh investment.
