UK Trade Body Challenges Government View on North Sea Gas Decline
February 20, 2026
Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) said on Thursday that recoverable gas reserves on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) amount to 456 billion cubic meters (bcm), more than double the 226 bcm production projection between 2025 and 2050 cited by the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA).
The trade body submitted its response this week to a government consultation on the future of the UK gas sector, which examines how to ensure long-term energy security as supply and demand evolve amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
OEUK said the consultation presents the decline in UK gas production as an unavoidable geological outcome and argues that no realistic level of investment can increase domestic supply. The group disputes that assessment, saying recoverable reserves exceed six times the UK’s annual gas requirement.
However, OEUK said unlocking these reserves would require new investment supported by reforms to taxes and regulation. It cited data from its members detailing 111 named projects equivalent to £50 billion of potential investment that could proceed under a revised fiscal framework.
The submission also draws on research from consultancy Westwood, which reviewed UK gas infrastructure including pipeline interdependencies, terminal resilience and throughput trends, as well as data from the National Energy System Operator published last autumn.
“This is one of the most important energy consultation exercises of recent years. It’s a critical opportunity to signal the UK is open for investment, safeguard energy security and back industries and jobs across the nation.
“Our submission makes clear that the most secure, reliable and lower emission source of gas for the UK is its own domestic production.
“The decline of the UK’s domestic gas supply is being driven by policy not geology. For as long as the nation requires gas, it’s in the national interest to produce as much of that gas as possible at home, where it delivers lower lifecycle emissions, greater energy and industrial security and higher economic value than imported alternatives,” said Enrique Cornejo, policy director of OEUK and lead author of the submission.
OEUK said reform of the Energy Profits Levy, which brings the headline tax rate on domestic oil and gas production to 78%, is needed to attract investment. It called for a stable and competitive fiscal and regulatory framework.
The group also highlighted the role of imports in the UK gas system. In 2024, the UK Continental Shelf provided 43% of UK gas supply, pipeline imports from Norway accounted for a further 43%, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports made up 14%.
OEUK said LNG, which it described as four times more carbon intensive than North Sea gas, could account for 46% of UK supply by 2035 if domestic production declines further, while Norwegian supplies are also expected to fall.
